Sunday, August 23, 2009

KEY FUNDAMENTALS AFFECTING USD, EUR & JPY

USD

• Federal Reserve Bank and their governor: the US Central Bank are in charge of making monetary policies in order to achieve stability in the economy. Market experiences a move when the president of the bank is giving a speech. Activities of the Bank has effects on the economy as a whole and should be watched.

• Federal Open Market (FOMC): It is a committee of 12 members which includes president the Fed, members of FOMC; through their voting they makes decision on monetary policy. Like announcement on interest rate.

• Interest rates: Federal fund rates is a the type of interest rate that makes more strong impact in the financial market when it is announced and the most important. Discount rate is the interest rate charged on commercial banks for emergency liquid purposes. The higher the rate of interest, the solid the currency which gives a buying opportunity to traders. Lower interest rate suggests a weakening economy and a sell opportunity for the traders.

• Economic data: like non-farm payroll, CPI, PPI, GDP, housing starts, housing permits, consumer confidence and so on have tremendous impact on the dollar.

• Stock market :popular market indices like Dow jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 influence the Dollar. The most influential is the Dow Jones. When these indexes are on the positive territory the dollar will more likely go up but when negative (down) the dollar will go down. The USD has a positive correlation with the US stock market indices. It is called a carry trade.

• Cross rate effects: a currency can be affected by another currency pair . For e.g. when the exchange rate of GBP/CHF is really down due to bad economy indicator affecting pound. There can be effect in GBP/USD when the pound is sold and USD is bought. This situation can occur also with EUR/USD, when the EUR economy is weak, it will be a boost for the dollar making people to buy the USD.

EUR

• Economic and political events in the Euro zone: the countries that made up the EURO ZONE are twelve in number, namely: France, Italy, Germany, Netherland, Belgium, Luxemburg, Spain, Austria, Greece, Finland, Portugal, and Ireland.

• Euro central banks and CB Governor: these central banks are responsible for making monetary policies that will stabilize the economy of countries in this zone. There are selected governor s which their speech can move EUR currency by name: Jean Claude Trichet, Erust Welteke, and Italy respectively. If you have gone through the economy calendars from websites like: Forexfactor.com, you will see at times written, "Trichet speaks" as one of the eco-event. This speech moves the market.

• Correlation: EURO has a negative correlative with CHF meaning that when EUR/USD is up expect USD/CHF to be down.

JPY

• MOF (Ministry Of Finance) is the sole institution which their statements gives an impact on the JPY. They are in charge of foreign exchange policies. They announces the interest rate which has a good move on the currency.

• BOJ: have complete control of monetary policies through their governor. Their speech gives clue on the pace of the economy thereby providing trading opportunities for the traders.

• Stock Market: Nikkei is one of the popular stock market in Japan and has a positive correlation with the JPY.

• Cross rate effects: other currencies like USD, EUR, GBP, also affects the JPY. For example when there is a positive data released on USD, this will cause USDJPY to move in uptrend. This means that as a result of the news released on USD people are selling the JPY at the same time buying Dollar.

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